Data-driven NFL projections, market analysis, and transparent forward testing. OddsCrew freezes qualifying model projections before results and tracks what happens next.
Current frozen weekly projections that satisfy OddsCrew's predefined V12 qualification criteria. Qualification is a model-selection signal, not a guarantee of an outcome.
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These statistics come from OddsCrew's permanent forward-testing record. Projections are frozen before results and completed weeks are preserved as historical observations.
Model error is shown alongside market error so performance can be evaluated against the posted market rather than viewed in isolation. Performance metrics currently include 58 of 61 frozen observations. 3 documented injury/DNP observations are preserved in the permanent record but excluded from performance calculations. Historical results do not guarantee future performance.
Research is separated from hindsight: evaluate the market, generate the model projection, apply frozen criteria, record qualifying projections, then grade the results.
Collect the current player-prop market.
Generate independent player projections.
Apply predefined qualification criteria.
Save projections before results.
Compare projections with actual results.
V12 compares historical player production with the sportsbook market line and identifies discrepancies between its projection and the posted line.
Historical player volatility is used as an uncertainty filter. A projection must satisfy the frozen research criteria before appearing as qualified.
Qualifying projections are recorded before results are known, creating a cleaner forward-testing process.
Qualification is not a guaranteed result or validated win probability. Forward results are used to evaluate the system.
OddsCrew is an independent sports analytics project focused on transparent, data-driven tools for analyzing sports markets. The current research program begins with NFL player projections and ongoing forward testing.